The hottest large paper enterprises cannot escape

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Large paper enterprises cannot escape the bad luck of bursting in the peak season

before and after the "double 11" in previous years, the use of cartons peaked, and their prices and consumption showed an upward trend. However, we learned that the price of waste cartons and the price of finished cartons in the markets all over the country are declining recently, and the consumption is also greatly reduced. Some waste buyers even return to their hometown in advance because of poor business. A few days ago, an investigation was carried out on this, involving the entire industrial chain from waste buyers to paper mills for convenience at work to users

the price has halved, and this year's waste paper market can't afford to play at all.

this year's waste paper price is basically a zigzag route, rising all the way from the beginning of the year to April. Around May, national waste began to fluctuate and fall all the way, especially from September to now, the purchase price fell from 3500/ton in the glorious period to less than 2000/ton now, and the price fell so that everyone couldn't find the north, The owner of the waste paper packaging station felt bitter. The price of this year fluctuated up and down. Everyone lamented that this year's waste paper was exactly the same as the futures and stock market. It didn't have two sons. It was really hard to play

this is true in the market. On the morning of November 14, Luzhong came to the waste acquisition point located in the northern suburb of Huantai

at a waste purchase site in the northern suburbs of Huantai, the yard was full of waste cartons

the yard of a waste purchase site is full of unpacked waste cartons, which is difficult to settle down. The boss who claims to have 20 years of experience told him that these are about 78 tons. According to the boss, the price of the cartons he receives here varies according to the quality. The general price is 50 cents a kilogram, but the good price is 70 cents a kilogram. After receiving them, they will be sent to the local paper mill. "When business is good, you can collect a truck of waste cartons a day." "A car?" Stunned, the boss explained that the tricycle he used could pull more than two tons per car

in the impression of the boss, the highest purchase price of cartons is about 1.2 yuan per kilogram, almost double the current price. Due to the low purchase price, the purchase site is a little deserted, and only about a ton of waste cartons can be received a day

calculated at 70 cents per kilogram of waste cartons, the cost of a ton is 1400, while the other party only gives 1400 to sell to the paper mill. Although the purchase of dry waste products is in a remote place, the houses are dilapidated, and they use their own people, but they can't earn money or even lose money. "It's mainly made up for by the cheap cartons we received. In the past, we could barely make money when we were 1600 tons."

with high inventory and loss selling, it is difficult for small paper mills to survive this winter.

self employment is difficult, and life is also difficult for large enterprises

Mr. Rong is the sales director of a large paper-making enterprise in Huantai, mainly responsible for checking orders and shipping. In the past, 15000 tons of cardboard were sent out by his hand every menstruation, but only 10000 tons in October, a full third less, which is not a small number

what made him feel headache was that not only the sales volume of box board paper fell sharply, but also the price plummeted, from about 5600 per ton in the same period last year to less than 5000 now, and the cheaper one sold only 4200 per ton, so the jaw should be cleaned often

in Mr. Rong's position, his understanding of this industry is much more comprehensive than the practitioners interviewed earlier. According to Mr. Rong, on the one hand, the supply of cardboard used in the manufacture of cartons is in a state of oversupply. On the other hand, many manufacturers choose to use white cardboard and gray cardboard instead of cardboard, because the prices of both are very low, resulting in the price of cardboard can not be raised

at present, the carton board production machine of Mr. Rong's enterprise has been in the shutdown state. If any step is ignored, there are 7000 tons of carton board in the warehouse. This figure is far less than the sales volume of one month, but it has doubled that of the same period last year

in Mr. Rong's view, the overall situation is not very good, which is another important reason for the decline in the sales of cardboard. "Real estate is a little weak, and the corresponding sales of household appliances are also affected, requiring less packaging materials, while the cartons made of cardboard produced by our company are used in large household appliances."

Mr. Rong said that the prospect of carton board paper is still good, because the national economic growth, the demand for packaging materials is increasing at a rate of 2% per year, but the requirements are also increased. Originally, recycled cardboard was used as the packaging material. Now people require to use full wood pulp cardboard. Their company has purchased a full wood pulp production line and is ready to put it into production next year, which is the measure taken to meet the requirements of environmental protection

according to Mr. Rong's judgment, the turnaround will occur in March next year. "At present, the selling price is lower than the cost, and selling it is a loss." Many small paper mills may not survive this winter, and the off-season of paper sales will be after the Spring Festival, and the consumption of cartons will be less and less, leading to the integration of resources in the industry

it's true that there are a large number of packages on the double 11, but the amount of cartons is decreasing sharply.

as a member of the large users of cartons, Xiao Song deeply understands Mr. Rong's distress

at noon on November 16, when I saw Xiao Song near Huantai turntable, he was having lunch with several colleagues around his desk. Xiao Song is a staff member of an express company. He is very busy these days. He has to cut in every detail when eating. Several cartons for express delivery are scattered in the office, in sharp contrast to the packaging bags hung on the shelves in the nearby workshop

as a county-level point of an express company, Xiao Song's place of work received 4000 express deliveries ready for delivery every day during the "double 11", which is four times the usual number. In the past, these express deliveries were basically packed in cartons. Now only half of them are like this, and the other half has been wrapped in packaging bags. "Now clothes and other things that are not afraid of breaking are packed in bags, and food is generally packed in boxes."

the policy, demand and economic situation are all bad, and the expectation of paper price rise is weak.

since the second half of this year, the National Bureau of statistics has announced a total of 12 market price changes of important means of production, of which the price of high-strength corrugated paper fell 11 times, and only a small rebound occurred in mid August. After the middle of September, the decline of paper price has accelerated significantly, and the decline of paper price per ton since September has exceeded 1000

another data from the Bureau of statistics, the producer price index of the paper industry, was only 99.9 in October, declining for the fifth consecutive month, and fell below 100 for the first time this year

as cartons are widely used in food, beverage, clothing, electronics, household appliances, household chemicals, machinery and other fields, and the main demand is generated through the consumption or export of downstream enterprises, the carton market is closely related to the economic situation, while waste cartons, as raw materials for production, are also affected by the economic situation

According to Liu Hui, an analyst at zhuochuang information, on the one hand, this year's Sino US trade war has affected some export-oriented carton orders. On the other hand, domestic overall consumption is not particularly strong. In the early stage, many analysts believe that real estate investment has declined, and the economic situation, including domestic demand, has shrunk to a certain extent, which is the demand situation

in terms of supply, the production lines of many enterprises have been put into operation one after another, and the output shows a slight increase trend. This changes, and the price of cartons is naturally difficult to rise

according to Liu Hui's experience, the prices of cardboard and cartons were expected to rise before the Spring Festival in previous years, but from the situation this year, including the "double 11" and "golden nine silver ten" did not meet the expectations, and many paper-making enterprises took a cautious and pessimistic attitude, believing that even if the price rose, the range would be very small

after the state issued the decree banning the import of solid waste, the foreign waste cannot enter, and the gap created needs to be filled by the national waste, and the price of the national waste cardboard box rises rapidly. However, the price has to follow the demand. The long-term demand is not strong enough. The paper enterprises can't bear the pressure of frequent inspection, scrubbing and maintenance due to the rising cost, and the high price can't last long. As the market digests the import tightening policy, its support for waste paper prices is also weakening

at the same time, due to the rising price of waste paper, which drives the price of finished products, many downstream enterprises choose other packaging materials out of cost considerations, which also drives down the sales of cardboard and cartons

as far as the current situation is concerned, there is a significant gap between the volume and price in peak season and the same period in previous years, but the situation of the whole year has not formed a roller coaster like trend compared with previous years, and the change is not particularly obvious

it is understood that Article 52 of the e-commerce law of the people's Republic of China, which will be implemented on January 1, 2019, stipulates that express logistics service providers should use environmentally friendly packaging materials in accordance with the regulations to achieve the reduction and reuse of packaging materials

some analysts believe that the implementation of this provision will not only further promote the use of green packaging materials, but also improve the utilization rate of cartons, thereby reducing procurement and driving down prices

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